Which duration is commonly used for a long-term planning horizon?

Which duration is commonly used for a long-term planning horizon?

• A. 5 years
• B. 20 years
• C. 30 years
• D. 40 years

Answer: (B)

Long-term planning horizons are set to balance forecasting accuracy with the ability to shape major investments. In airport planning, twenty years is the standard because it lines up with the life cycles of big assets and the funding cycles for capital programs. This horizon is long enough to capture future demand and expansion needs (like terminal and runway capacity) while still keeping forecasts credible for engineering and financial decisions. Five years is usually too short to inform major infrastructure decisions, and thirty or forty years can be far too uncertain to be actionable, though they can be used for sensitivity or scenario analyses. So, twenty years is the commonly used long-term planning horizon.

Long-term planning horizons are set to balance forecasting accuracy with the ability to shape major investments. In airport planning, twenty years is the standard because it lines up with the life cycles of big assets and the funding cycles for capital programs. This horizon is long enough to capture future demand and expansion needs (like terminal and runway capacity) while still keeping forecasts credible for engineering and financial decisions. Five years is usually too short to inform major infrastructure decisions, and thirty or forty years can be far too uncertain to be actionable, though they can be used for sensitivity or scenario analyses. So, twenty years is the commonly used long-term planning horizon.